Official rates × board rulesFashion synthesis / promotion decider
"I hold N pieces of some grade in some slot — synthesise now, promote, or wait and stock up?" Enter what you hold. Expected attempts use only Nexon Taiwan's published row-by-row rates; the play rules come from the 巴哈 board (snA thread numbers linked so you can check).
VerdictSynthesise nowEpic → Legendary · Hat
Expected attempts
4.9
Epic→Legendary, at official rates
Expected cost
5.9
5.9 Epic pieces per 1 Legendary
You can make
1 tries
1 synthesis tries, 20% chance one lands
Shards back
19.8
5 per failure, expected until success
What you hold
2 in this slot + 0 in other slots of Epic → 1 synthesis tries; 20% chance of reaching the next grade within them.
For a 90% chance you need 12 pieces (1 base + 11 materials) → 10 short.
If all 1 fail you bank 5 shards, total 5/100; 19 more failures until the guaranteed item.
Why
- To start synthesising: left cell 1 Epic of this slot + right cell 1 Epic of any slot + 1 Legendary Tailor's Scissors (傳說裁縫剪刀); target slot goes on the left, the right cell is free 〔snA=2267 floor 5〕.
- Both are Epic→Legendary: synthesis puts in 2 and hands back a random Epic of the slot on failure (the 80% rows of the official table), so it really costs 1 〔snA=2267 B24〕; promotion burns 2 materials per try. To the hard pity: synthesis 20 failures = 20 pieces, promotion 15 failures = 30 materials. Synthesis is cheaper and needs only 1 same-slot Epic as base.
- Every failed Epic→Legendary attempt banks shards, and 100 convert automatically into a guaranteed item (Nexon Taiwan notice 3504848), so trying now costs nothing extra — failures walk toward the floor. Shards are per slot 〔snA=2267 floor 2〕.
- Thin stock: 1 tries give only 20%; for 90% you would need 12 pieces.
- Mysterious Fabric (神秘織物, 2,000 shop points) can stand in for one Epic in the right cell; the left cell still needs a real Epic 〔snA=2282 B2, B5〕.
- Lock what you want to keep first: dyed pieces and set pieces (the Fashion Muse 時裝繆思 60 sets: 4-piece sets need 4, 5- and 3-piece sets need 3 〔snA=2268 B5〕) must not be fed as material — someone on the board synthesised away dyed shoes 〔snA=2267 floor 5〕.
- Cash items on top: Elite→Epic and Epic→Legendary promotion need Magic Thread (魔法絲線), synthesis needs Legendary Tailor's Scissors (傳說裁縫剪刀). Prices are not on the official rate page; this tool does not estimate them.
- Short of Epics means pulling: after the Premium Fashion Lucky Box (頂級時裝幸運箱) 100-pull pity is claimed, further pulls count again and it can be claimed again in the same rotation 〔snA=2270 B3, B4, B5〕; duplicate Epics are synthesis material 〔snA=2270 B1〕.
Route and official rates (every row is a NEXON NOW figure)
| Step | Official rate | Expected tries | 90% of people | Expected cost per 1 made | Hard pity |
|---|
| Synthesise Epic→Legendary (Hat) | 20% | 4.9 | 11 | 5.9 Epic | at most 20 failures |
| Alternative: promote Epic→Legendary | 25% | 3.9 | 9 | 8.9 Epic | at most 15 failures |
Returned on failure: 5 shards each, expected 19.8 before a success.
What synthesising Hat produces (official table · 男性)Legendary 20% · Epic 80%
| Item | Rarity | Official rate |
|---|
| 海豚式泳鏡帽 | 史詩 · returned | 20% |
| 西部荒野帽 | 史詩 · returned | 20% |
| 花之慶典帽 | 史詩 · returned | 20% |
| 高地流蘇帽 | 史詩 · returned | 20% |
| 宇宙星之子光環 | 傳說 | 20% |
Board rules (snA opens the thread)
- Advanced→Rare ignores slot; from Rare up it takes 3 pieces of the same slot and grade 〔snA=2247 floor 5, snA=2267 floor 5, snA=2155 floor 6; the official ladder itself is by grade only〕.
- The first cell is the base: a failure does not destroy it, only the two material cells; the result's slot follows the base 〔snA=2247 B9, snA=2267 floor 5; official alchemy guide: main material recovered safely〕.
- Synthesis: target slot in the left cell, any slot on the right; a failure returns a random Epic of the slot, so one piece is really spent 〔snA=2267 floor 5, B24; the 80% rows of the official table are the returned Epic〕.
- Synthesis-failure shards are per slot: 5 per failure, 100 convert into that slot's legendary fashion box = at most 20 failures 〔snA=2267 floor 2, B24; Nexon Taiwan notice 3504848〕.
- A failed Epic→Legendary promotion gives 7 promotion-ticket shards; 100 convert into that slot's promotion ticket = at most 15 failures 〔Nexon Taiwan notice 3504848; not separately discussed on the board〕.
- Mysterious Fabric (神秘織物): 2,000 shop points, placed in a material cell in place of one Epic; the left cell still needs a real Epic 〔snA=2282 B2, B5〕.
- After the Premium Fashion Lucky Box 100-pull pity is claimed, further pulls count again and it can be claimed again in the same rotation; duplicates go into synthesis 〔snA=2270 B3, B4, B5, B1〕.
- Fashion Muse 時裝繆思 (60 sets) counting: a 4-piece set needs 4, 5- and 3-piece sets need 3; gender variants do not count twice — do not feed set pieces 〔snA=2268 B5, B8〕.
- The board's order: promote Rare→Elite first, then Elite→Epic, then synthesise; then look back at which slots are short of Elites and pad with other-slot Advanced pieces 〔snA=2267 floor 5, snA=2247 floor 5〕.
Not yet confirmed
- Whether Mysterious Fabric replaces a material in synthesis or in promotion: the board says it is used to gamble at 20% (the synthesis figure) 〔snA=2282 B6〕, while this site's existing data lists it under Epic→Legendary promotion. Both may be true; the official page does not say.
- Whether synthesis can still produce Cosmic Starchild (宇宙星之子) once the next legendary set is on sale: under the KR rule, no (KR notice of 6/25) — every legendary generation has a fixed acquisition window (KR's six generations rolled over on 2025-03-27 / 06-19 / 09-25 / 12-18 / 2026-03-26 / 06-25, roughly one every 3 months), and after a rollover even the per-slot legendary fashion box gives only the generation current at the moment of use; the notice's own example: a box opened on 6/26 yields only the current 6th set (幻影卡爾德雷亞, KR's Phantom Caldrea), never the previous one. TW's official Cosmic Starchild notice only states an acquisition window ending 2026-09-09 05:59 and does not say what synthesis does afterwards — not confirmed for TW, and no consensus on the board 〔snA=2267 floor 1〕.
- Whether Normal→Advanced has a slot restriction: the board only says green (Advanced) is unrestricted and blue (Rare) onward is same-slot; this tool counts only same-slot pieces for Normal-grade pieces.
- The official text says matching the material's type and slot to the main material makes legendary promotion easier; the size of that bonus is unpublished — the table's 25% is a headline figure.
- The board's "feels far below the stated rate" (40% feeling like 80% failure, 20 fails in a row) is anecdote, not data 〔snA=2247〕; this tool uses only the official figures.
Rates: NEXON NOW Taiwan official probability page (fashion synthesis 時裝裝備合成 men/women, fashion promotion 時裝裝備晉階); shard rules: Nexon Taiwan notice 3504848 (the Cosmic Starchild legendary-fashion explainer); play rules: Bahamut Mabinogi Mobile board, snA = thread number.
Not computed here: cash-item prices (Magic Thread, Legendary Tailor's Scissors, Mysterious Fabric), the size of the official "matching material makes promotion easier" bonus, and the board's felt rates. A number that is not in the table is not on this card.
